Quebec election - The Morning After

If I could meet them in person, I'd have some harsh words to say to the poll clerks and returning officers in Sherbrooke - thanks to them, I was up about an hour and a half longer than I needed to be, hitting "refresh results" every few minutes to find out if Jean Charest was indeed, as CBC was claiming, defeated in his own riding. I've been groggy all day as a result. As a spectator sport, last night was awesome. I haven't been so rivetted by a leaderboard since the 1995 referendum.

Greater (and more alert) pundits than I have already weighed in with most of what I would say about the significance of the election, but I'll sum up what I think are the most important bits:

1) By no means does the third place finish of the PQ mean that the sovereignty movement is dead. All three parties campaigned on their ability to win concessions from Ottawa, and Dumont's "autonomiste" option is sovereignty-lite. Voters were prepared to punish both the Liberals and the PQ, but this means that the issue is temporarilly dormant, ready to be awakened when Mario Dumont eventually makes a demand that Stephen Harper won't concede, and is then accused of having made a "grave insult" to Quebec.

2) André Boisclair's career as PQ leader, despite his protestations to the contrary, is over. The PQ does not treat failed leaders well, and will seek to regain its rural support, and perhaps rebuild its bridges with the left. Maybe Lisette Lapointe (Jacques Parizeau's wife) wants to make PQ leadership a family affair?

3) Quebec Solidaire and the Greens did surprisingly well in Eastern and Western Montreal respectively. If I were Daniel Turp, I'd be thanking my various gods today.

4) Mario Dumont is now in the driver's seat, and in an ideal position for future growth. He narrowly dodged becoming the Bob Rae of Quebec provincial politics, and will instead have some time to break in his new crop of MNAs, and figure out who the wingnuts are.

5) It's going to be a painful few years on the federal-provincial relations front. My best guess is that, having extracted concessions on the equalization front, the Charest-Dumont duo will now go after tax points, and call on Ottawa to lower federal taxes to make more room for Quebec to raise more of its own revenue. The big question is whether Stephen Harper thinks that every ADQ seat is a potential federal Conservative district. Personally, I have my doubts that everyone who voted ADQ is a conservative - there were other factors at play, like protest voting, nationalism, and anti-Montreal sentiment - but if Harper thinks that decentralization and dancing the Jean et Mario two-step will win him votes, he may go a long way indeed to meet their demands.

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Who will win the Quebec election?

There are times when I'm really glad that I'm a historian as opposed to a political scientist or a journalistic pundit. My job entails looking at an election campaign years after it is over, examining various pieces of evidence, and only then explaining why it turned out the way it did. It's a somewhat less daunting challenge than reading the tea leaves in a three-way race and attempting to predict who will win.

But because I like to dabble, here's my best guess. It will be a minority government. I suspect that Charest will come out with the most seats, but not by a large margin. This will make Dumont the effective kingmaker, and I suspect he will prop up the Liberals for as long as it is convenient for him.

There is not a minority government scenario that I can envision where André Boisclair plays an active role in making or supporting policy. There is simply too much distance between Boisclair and Charest on issues of federalism, and between Boisclair and Dumont on issues of social policy to make a coalition involving the PQ viable. So even if Boisclair wins the most seats, if he fails to claim a majority, he is unlikely to form the government, and if he tries to, it will fall at the first budget.

What does this mean, in a broader sense? It means a continuation of demands for decentralization of powers and fiscal space from Ottawa to Quebec City, coupled with some right-wing policy shifts. I don't Quebec is in for a Mike Harris-style revolution, but there may be some selective moves away from the state-centric policy that has characterized Quebec's political economy since the 1960s.

What's that rumbling sound you hear? That would be the sound of the campaign buses of Boisclair's rivals revving up for an impending leadership race.

Of course, all the pollsters could be wrong, and we could see a majority government tomorrow. We'll all just have to wait and see!

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Quebec election - Post-debate thoughts

I managed to watch about 75% of the leaders' debate last night on TVA - for whatever reason, RDI is not part of the basic cable package in Atlantic Canada, and Radio-Canada didn't feel it necessary to show the debate out here!

I did not expect great things from Jean Charest, given the rough first term that he has had, and his two great failures to do much about his promises to reduce wait times and lower taxes. That being said, he generally seemed to be calm and controlled, and on top of his dossiers. He is really playing up the "look what a constructive partner in Confederation can get out of Ottawa" card. Although he was the main focus of the attacks last night, he fared reasonably well. It wasn't a particularly dynamic performance, but it won't hurt him either, I suspect.

I have never had the opportunity to hear André Boisclair speak for more than a brief sound bite. I was rather surprised at how reserved and quiet he appeared to be, fading into the background, and under the volume of the other two leaders. His exchanges with Mario Dumont were the most interesting, with Boisclair continually repeating the same pointed questions at Dumont, which Dumont tried to dodge. I was not particularly surprised, but was amused, at how Boisclair only spoke of a referendum once during his opening statement, and then it was almost as an afterthought at the end of a statement, with his voice dropping as he delivered that part of his speech. Like Charest, I don't know that Boisclair will be hurt by this performance, but he certainly didn't come off as either charismatic or dynamic.

Mario Dumont had the most to lose from last night's debate, and I think it did hurt him. He came out like a pitbull, attacking the two other leaders in an aggressive fashion. However, the other two seemed determined to show up the lack of depth in his plans, and his lack of experience. He had few responses for their pointed questions, and looked out of control at various points. His catch phrase "People will say that a vote for the ADQ is this or that, but a vote for the ADQ is a vote for the ADQ, and if that is what you want, it's a vote for you" (my rough translation) is incoherent bafflegab. He's definitely aiming for small and medium sized communities with his very heavy emphasis on families, particularly those who don't use the daycare system, and on support for small business. It won't win him much love in Montreal, but it might just sell in the regions and in Quebec City. His platform will win him little love outside of the province - as someone who lives outside the province, his question attacking Charest regarding the lack of "demandes" from the federal government in the Liberal platform presses all the wrong buttons for me.

One thing is clear - the real show is next Monday's federal budget. Charest is promising results from his cooperation with Ottawa and the other provinces, and Dumont is waiting until after it comes down to show his numbers. And so we wait another week...

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Quebec election - Debate Night

Tonight is the leaders' debate in the Quebec election campaign. With two weeks remaining until election day, and poll numbers fluctuating pretty wildly, this event effectively kicks off the "real" campaign in some respects. Tonight voters will get to watch Charest's first leaders' debate where he has to defend his record, and we'll see if either Boisclair or Dumont are able to score significant points - or if they find themselves fending off attacks themselves.

The other shoe will drop next week with the announcement of the federal budget. From recent reports, Alberta Premier Stelmach is seeming mollified as well. Will this budget end up being everything that we've been led to expect, with hefty new subsidies for equalization? Where will that money be coming from? Will Dalton McGuinty dare attack the Harper budget with a week left in the Quebec election campaign, or will he hold his fire until the votes are in?

And apropos of absolutely nothing - I'm now into my tenth week of waiting for my renewed passport. Health care wait times are bothering me less than passport wait times at the moment.

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Quebec election - The Third Parties

Not one to be easily shoved aside in what is usually a two-way race, Mario Dumont has come out swinging to try to make the ADQ relevant in this election. Yesterday, he was talking about a Quebec citizenship and a Quebec constitution, to lay out the terms for "reasonable accomodation" of immigrants to the province. This seems to be one of his big cards for rural Quebec. Today, he announced support for two-tier health care in Outremont, with his star candidate declaring himself in favour of allowing individuals to completely opt out of the public health care system. This strikes me as a risky strategy in a province where the right wing is getting awfully crowded, but is fighting for a smaller pool of voters than in other provinces. I'm not certain if talking about private health care in Montreal, where it might seem more viable, will appeal as much to voters in Trois-Pistoles. But it certainly seems that M. Dumont is trying to make this a policy-oriented election, rather than allowing Boisclair and Charest to fight it out on the federalist-separatist battleground.

With all of this attention on the right-of-centre, it will be interesting to see what Quebec Solidaire can do in its efforts to target a few Montreal ridings with its left-wing message. Traditionally, you could count on the PQ to occupy the left wing of the political spectrum, and Boisclair's drift to the right has alienated this wing of the party. Are voters alienated enough to take a risk with a new party? This could become an interesting question, particularly as vote-splitting seems to be a likely phenomenon this year.

I'm writing this post from the riding of Mercier, in Montreal's Plateau neighbourhood, and the signs are sprouting rapidly on lampposts. Election fever is in the air, and it's going to be a bumpy ride.

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L'élection québécoise. On commence...

And they're off to the races! Jean Charest visited the lieutenant-governor of Quebec yesterday morning, and the election campaign is on. Things will be very interesting between now and March 26th. Here's my capsule version of what I think the most important dynamics will be - subject to change over the campaign:

1) Three-way races and vote splitting. The ADQ, as it often does, is riding well in the polls at the moment, and much of that support is concentrated in small-town Quebec, the traditional stomping ground of the Creditistes and the Union Nationale. If this holds, it could bleed significant support from the PQ, creating some tight three-way races. While I don't expect them to win any significant percentage of the provincial vote, the left-wing Quebec Solidaire might bleed away support from the left flank of the PQ, particularly in Montreal, which would also help Charest's Liberals.

2) Leadership. Charest goes into this election not as a loved premier, but as an experienced one, and also as a reasonably competent one. I thought it would take longer for him to start sniping at Andre Boisclair's "immaturity", but that particular card is already in play. We'll see over the next few weeks just how Quebeckers actually feel about his past cocaine use (and approach to unions, and to the United States, and to the referendum issue). I want to believe that his homosexuality will not be an issue, but I could very easily see it playing a role, particularly among more right-wing sovereignists.

3) Federalism. Jean Charest (also known as the junior Mulroney minister who tried to salvage the Meech Lake Accord) and Stephen Harper have been trying very hard to improve the Ottawa-Quebec City relationship. Expect to see a very Quebec-favorable budget come down on March 19th. I don't think we'll see direct federal intervention on the hustings, but federal policies will play a very important role. It'll be interesting to see how Dion approaches the federal budget, with a potential federal election looming as well.

4) "Reasonable Accomodation". The issue of multiculturalism is getting a lot of press in Quebec, even after Charest created the Bouchard-Taylor commission. I think this will be a hot-button issue outside of Montreal, and that it will be the ADQ that gains support from those who think it is an important topic because they are uncomfortable with it. Mario Dumont called yesterday for a Quebec constitution and citizenship (to complement the Canadian ones) which would lay out a statement of principles about what it means to be a Quebecker. He's certainly not looking like someone who will wait for a commission report.

5) Provincial policy issues. Taxes, tuition increases, regional development. I'm sure that we will see them all in the parties' campaign literature, but I don't think these are going to be the major issues of the campaign. With Boisclair and Dumont both posititoning themselves on the right, Charest doesn't have as much to defend against in terms of starkly different economic visions for the province. We'll see colourful coverage of student protests, but Charest's proposed $100/year tuition increase, coupled with major investment in post-secondary education, is probably not enough to really stoke the ire of most voters.

Who will win? It's far too early to say, and we may yet see a minority government. But Charest is in a good position with the PQ fighting internally, and support for sovereignty at a lower point than it was two years ago. This may come down to individual riding battles, and close three-way races, and it'll be really interesting to watch. I wouldn't rule out some major electoral gaffe by one leader or another (or a past leader, for that matter) which could change the dynamics completely!

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