I'm a bad political blogger. I let a conversation about a job offer interfere with watching Paul Martin's speech. What follows is based on news coverage...
I think that promising an election call within 30 days of the Gomery Report was a fairly smart ploy of Paul Martin's. It gives the appearance that he is willing to face the electorate once all the facts are in. Any attempt to bring down the government before then can then be couched as an attempt to circumvent due process and full disclosure of information and conclusions. It becomes a question of "why are six months going to make a difference?" or "why is the opposition overly eager?"
I think that Paul Wells is correct in his analysis that this will make it hard for the opposition to have a non-confidence vote before Gomery reports. And if Paul Martin is smart, he will look carefully at Jack Layton's openness to making the minority Parliament work. A few changes to the budget and the NDP will be onside, and independent MP Chuck Cadman has indicated a willingness to wait for the Gomery Report. This government may just live through the summer.
Of course, all this depends on the Liberals playing smart politics, and working effectively with Parliament, rather than pulling stupid stunts like cancelling Opposition Days. Frankly, between now and the fall, Paul Martin should be purging his advisors and building a more effective communications team, to get ready for his desired winter election. But I'm not holding my breath. Whether or not he could survive that election, even with careful governance between now and then, is anyone's guess.
P.S. - Sorry if my blogging has been infrequent of late. Life has been rather active on the job front these past few weeks. It is exam season, after all! Recommend this Post